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MARKET COMMENTARY

Weekly Market Recap April 26, 2019

Friday, April 26, 2019, 8:04 PM
Submitted by: Landus Cooperative


We saw a little bounce at the end of the week for corn prices, but all in all, it was a pretty ugly week for grain prices.

On Friday, July corn futures finished +4 at 3.61 1/4. That is down 6 from the end of last week.

December corn added 3 1/2 today, ending at 3.80 3/4, but down 5 1/2 for the week.

July soybean futures were off 5 3/4 Friday, settling at 8.67, and down 27 1/4 this week.

November futures were down 5 1/2 at 8.87 3/4, losing 25 3/4 since last week.

 

An interesting end of the week note shows July oats gaining 6 1/4 cents Friday and gaining 16 1/2 for the week.  Quite a few of the “old time” traders like to use the quote “oats knows” when talking about the relationship between oats and corn. I have never been quite convinced that it is a strong correlation, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. For what it’s worth, the volume of July oats trades are about 1,000 contracts (or less) per day. Compare that to 150,000 to 250,000 contracts per day for July corn futures.

 

Also, this week, there was a pretty good article by Chip Flory on Ag Web, discussing complacency and fatigue with regard to marketing grain. It’s easy to check out when prices are falling and there are other things to do to occupy your mind and your time. Like, planting and field work.  But, he makes a strong case for avoiding “checking out”. The one part that really resonated with me was this:

  • Ask yourself if “today” is a day to make a sale. Even if you decide not to, it’s important to realize that you have made a marketing decision.

The full article can be found here: https://www.agweb.com/article/chip-flory-fight-the-fatigue/

 

To take that a step further, we’re asking people these questions:

  • If we could show you a bid of $3.50 per bushel or better for May delivery, would you sell some of that and move corn out of your bins?
  • If we could get to $3.50 or better for Harvest delivery, would you make a sale there?
  • No strings attached, no complex marketing alternatives. Just a simple cash sale for that delivery period

If your answer is anywhere close to “yes”, we think you owe it to yourself to check out the bids for May 2020 and October 2020. All of our locations are above $3.50 for May of 2020, and several are at or above $3.60. For October 2020, almost all of our locations are above $3.55, some in the $3.60’s.  We’re not saying get carried away there and sell significant quantities, but those look like good places to start. And then, hope you get more chances to sell above those number.

 

We have a lot more bullish and bearish items to consider and you can find them on our weekly podcast, The Landus Cooperative Experience, featuring the Bull Bear Banter.  You can access it here: https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-sxtnh-af49a4

Whatever your plans for the weekend, here is hoping that the weather doesn’t negatively impact you.

 

 

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2321 North Loop Dr., STE 220
Ames, IA 50010
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