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MARKET COMMENTARY

Weekly Market Recap February 15, 2019

Friday, February 15, 2019, 10:02 PM
Submitted by: Landus Cooperative


Friday afternoon, March corn closed unchanged for the day, at 374 3/4, which is up 1/2 cent from last Friday.  December corn was also unchanged Friday, at 399 1/4 and unchanged as well for the week.

 

For soybeans, March closed up 4 cents at $9.07 1/2, but down 7 for the week. November beans were also +4 for the day, but lost 5 for the week.

 

 

The big story this week, and probably the big surprise of the week was the action on Thursday. After starting the day somewhat calmly, and just a little lower, by mid-day, March corn was off 5 cents, ending the day down 4. March soybeans also started the day a bit lower, and then traded lower, finishing the day down 13. All of this was attributed to disappointing export sales news for the week of January 3rd. This data showed corn sales at 460,000 MT, when the trade anticipated a range of 500,000 to 900,000 MT. Soybeans were reported at a NEGATIVE 600,000 MT, mostly due to cancellations by China of more than 800,000 MT. This compares to an anticipated range of 600,000 MT to 1 Million MT. While it’s kind of hard to estimate something that happened more than a month ago, it’s easy to see why such a large negative number pushed us lower.

 

 

Here are some of the bullish factors we’re watching for corn:

 

 

South American weather forecasts show a possibility of dryness in some critical growing areas of both Brazil and Argentina.

Crude oil continues to rebound and work higher, WTI is now above $55 after a low of ~$42 Dec. 24th.

Continued optimism for corn exports to China.

 

And on the bear side for corn, we’re watching the following:

 

 

Argentina’s corn crop is planted and rated at 61% Good to Excellent – pretty good for there

Private analysts tweaked their expectations for corn acres a little, but most still sub 92 million acres

Lack of fresh news continues to keep the market steady to lower

 

Bull factors for soybeans include:

 

Potential for an extension of the delay in increased tariffs. Some reports suggesting a 60 day delay.

Reduced U.S. soybean acres are anticipated by most, with some dropping close to 4 million acres.

NOPA crush for January shows another record month of U.S. soybean processing, that’s 5 months now.

 

Bear Factors:

 

910 million bushels is a lot of soybeans for a U.S. carry over number.

Argentina’s soy crop is rated 54% GTE vs. 11% this time last year.

General unease in the world. China/US trade issues. A potential U.S. National Emergency. Brexit. The list goes on, but uncertainty is never good in the long run.

 

Like what you see? Tune in to our weekly podcast, the Landus Cooperative Experience that features the Bull Bear Banter, recapping the week’s events. You can find the podcast at:

 

https://landuscooperativeexperience.podbean.com

 

 

Also, don’t forget about our upcoming Women in Ag event called Ventures. This will be held March 22-23 in Des Moines.  See www.landuscooperative.com/news-release/ventures for more information.

 

 

Lastly, trade is closed on Monday. Have a good weekend!

 

 

 

 

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