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MARKET COMMENTARY

Weekly Market Recap January 25, 2019

Friday, January 25, 2019, 11:01 PM
Submitted by: Landus Cooperative


Interesting end to the day today in Chicago with Old Crop and New Crop corn and soybeans all finishing the day in positive territory. All four were trading in somewhat higher much of the day, and certainly after Noon. But, in the last few minutes, all jumped a little more. With the news of government leaders striking a deal to end the shut-down, at least temporarily, and that news coming out about 1 P.M., it felt like nobody wanted to go home short for the weekend on potentially bullish news.

 

 

 

For the day, March corn was +3 1/4, ending the week -1 1/2. December corn ended the day +2 1/2 and down 1/2 for the week.

 

 

 

In soybeans, March futures were +9 1/4, while November beans were + 7 3/4 for the day. For the week, they both finished +8 1/2.

 

 

 

So, we erased all of the earlier weeks negativity in beans, and not quite all of it in corn. Perhaps we’ll see a little more upside Sunday night and into Monday.

 

 

 

We continue to hear that talks with the Chinese include discussions about them buying corn, but so far, just continued rumors and speculation. There is also growing optimism about a deal for soybeans, even though comments earlier this week from the U.S. team said the parties were “miles apart”.  Regardless, the Chines trade delegation will be in Washington D.C. next week.

 

 

 

With the government re-opening for 3 weeks, and the earlier comments about it taking approximately 5 days for the USDA to compile S&D’s, that would mean sometime around February 4th, they should be ready. We would expect that they would roll the Jan. 11th data into the Feb. 8th release and do them all at once. But, we’ll have to wait for next week to get some clarification.

 

 

 

We are also encouraging people to take a good look at New Crop corn values. With the current carry in the market from March futures to December futures, all of our locations are showing a better bid for October delivery than for January or February. And all of the New Crop bids are better than what we were able to show for last harvest. If you have not made many (or any) sales for New Crop corn, now would be a good time. If nothing, else, leave us an offer at a level you’d like to get sold and let the market do the work. Our concern continues to be that at some point, possibly in March, if not after the March 29th perspective planting report, we will see December futures move into an inverse relative to Old Crop corn, instead of the carry it is showing today.

 

 

 

Try to stay warm this weekend and into the next week. It sounds like that may be tough to do. But, in all cases, please be safe in this weather, and when you have to be out and about, make sure to take the proper precautions, especially if you are traveling. Catch this week’s episode of the Bull Bear Banter at https://landuscooperativeexperience.podbean.com/

 

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