Morning Comments December 21, 2018
Friday, December 21, 2018, 2:12 PM
Submitted by: Landus Cooperative
Corn Steady to 1 higher
Beans Steady to 1 lower
Yesterday showed a lot of bearish sentiment in the corn market. The trade is growing tired of waiting for Chinese buying with no real evidence that they intend to buy much, if any, U.S. corn. The weakness in energy markets spilled over into the corn market as well. Ethanol production numbers are not all that great with ethanol producers operating in the red and futures based blending margin between gasoline and ethanol down about a dime per gallon. It wasn’t that long ago that the USDA nearly doubled world corn carryout estimates when they started to include Chinese corn inventories at a much bigger number.
Soybeans are trading a bit lower this morning. As we head into the end of the year, it looks like unless there are substantial Chinese sales or some serious weather problems develop in South America, funds are likely going to remain short as we wind down the year.
The March dollar index is trading lower this morning. The February crude oil contract is once again trading lower. West Texas rude is in the $45/barrel range, and Brent crude is below $54.
A possible U.S. government shutdown starting tonight is sure to grab plenty of headlines today, as eyes are on Congress and President Donald Trump to see if they can get a short-term funding bill enacted – with or without additional border wall funding, which seems to be the main point of contention at this point. On a more positive governmental note, President Trump signed the 2018 Farm Bill yesterday afternoon and called it a “tremendous victory” for U.S. farmers.
The Landus Cooperative Experience podcast released a special episode late yesterday. This featured snippets from the keynote speaker at the recent Landus Cooperative annual meeting. Jason Hafemeister is trade counsel to USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue. The podcast episode included information from his talk about trade with China, Mexico, Canada and Japan. You can listen to the podcast at https://landuscooperativeexperience.podbean.com/ or catch the entire presentation on the Landus Cooperative customer portal in video format.
Later today, we will release the latest Bull Bear Banter on the podcast, which can also be found here: https://landuscooperativeexperience.podbean.com/
Next week, the CBOT will be open until Noon Monday, closed Tuesday and regular hours balance of the week. The forecast looks very good for all of those driving over the river and through the woods in the next few days. Wherever your travels take you, we wish nothing but a safe and happy Christmas season.