December Supply and Demand Report Recap 12/11/18
Tuesday, December 11, 2018, 6:12 PM
Submitted by: Landus Cooperative
USDA released their December Supply and Demand report today. Overall, numbers were increased from the November report but still within the range of estimates.
U.S. corn carryout was bumped up slightly to 1.781 billion bushels vs. 1.736 billion in last month’s report. The biggest contributor to this was a 50 million bushel decline in corn use for ethanol. U.S. soybean carryout was unchanged at 0.955 billion, and wheat was raised slightly from 0.949 to 0.974 billion. For world carryout, corn was increased from 307.5 to 308.8 MMT. Both the E.U and Ukraine saw increases in production of 1 MMT and 1.5 MMT, respectively. World bean carryout was the only number we saw that was above the range of estimates, increased from 112.08 to 115.33 MMT. Looking at South America’s production, the only change we saw from last month’s report was an increase in Brazil’s soy production from 120.5 MMT to 122 MMT.
Markets were mixed this morning ahead of the report, with corn steady/down 1 cent and beans up 2 to 4 cents. Immediately following the report, we saw a slight dip in both corn and beans as traders digested the new numbers. Currently we are back around where we were at this morning on prices. Overall the report numbers did not come as a surprise, as we rarely see major changes before the January report. We will be looking for traders to turn their attention back on the U.S./China trade agreement progress. Producers are also waiting to hear an official announcement from the USDA on whether or not they will see the other half of the $1.65 soybean payment.