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MARKET COMMENTARY

USDA WASDE November 8, 2018

Thursday, November 8, 2018, 6:11 PM
Submitted by: Landus Cooperative


Good afternoon –

 

Today, the USDA released the November estimates of world agriculture supply and demand. Corn in the U.S. generally came within expectations, but there was a big surprise in world ending stocks numbers. U.S. corn yield was published at 178.9 bu/acre, 1.8 bu/acre less than last month’s estimate. The reduction in yield dropped production by 150 mln bu. Feed usage dropped by 50 mln bu to 5.5 bln bu and exports dropped 25 mln bu to 2.45 bln bu. Net reduction to U.S. ending stocks was 77 mln bu, now sitting at 1.736 bln bu, at the lower end of the expected range. The big surprise was in the world ending stocks number. As noted by USDA, this month’s WASDE report incorporated historical revisions to China’s supply and demand estimates. USDA incorporated production data published this month by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. In essence, it ballooned world carryout numbers north of 340 MMT (a growth change of 142 MMT). While this is bearish to the price of corn, it has been anticipated by the trade for a while now. Additionally, Chinese corn is pretty isolated from the world corn trade and won’t find its way onto the world market. It’s one of those “we knew it was coming, it was a just a matter of time, and today was the day” type of things. At any rate, corn has traded both sides of “even” today, currently sitting at 3.72, down 1/4c from yesterday.

 

Soybeans are a bit more straightforward today. Yield dropped by 1 bu/acre, dropping production by 90 mln bu to 4.6 bln bu. Crush increased by 10 mln bu to 2.08 bln bu. The one piece that has been a long time coming is a drop in exports. USDA dropped soybean exports by 160 mln bu to 1.9 bln bu. More revisions lower are expected, but a stair-step approach downward seems to be the best approach. All-in-all, ending stocks increased to 955 mln bu. It probably goes without saying, but that is a very burdensome carryout. Oddly enough, beans were down 13c at one point in today’s trade. They have fought back to trading just down 2c as of this writing.

 

Have a great day!

 

 

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