Morning Comments November 2, 2018
Friday, November 2, 2018, 1:11 PM
Submitted by: Landus Cooperative
Corn steady to +1
Beans +2 to 4
Based on positive comments from President Trump about the trade issues with China, the soybean board rallied yesterday. January beans were up 30 cents, and have some follow through strength again this morning. That, on top of comments earlier in the week by USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue, indicating that the second round of Market Facilitation Payments would be the same as the first installment provided some real positive net cash values for soybeans. If the entire $1.65 per bushels is achievable for your operation, and then added to our current cash price, it puts the total at or above $9.50 per bushel. We’re still a long ways from solving issues with the Chinese, but this appears to be a good first step. As some have said, it indicated a “thawing” of the relationship. Besides that, there is not much positive to discuss about soybeans. The USDA will issue a WASDE report next Thursday. Many are expecting a substantial cut in the soybean export number, which was last estimated at 2.060 billion. If it doesn’t happen in this report, it seems that it will have to be adjusted before too long.
For corn, other than strength from the soybean board, there is not much else to keep it moving higher. Corn from Argentina remains the cheapest source for the world at this point. At some point, they (and Ukraine) will run out of exportable corn, and things will have to shift back to the U.S. One glimmer of hope is that the U.S crop size could be reduced in next week’s WASDE. Some are expecting a slight decrease. Based on recent exports, there is also concern that the USDA could reduce corn exports at some point as well. With this recent uptick, many, if not most of our locations are posting a bid at or above $3.50 for October/November of 2019. We continue to encourage you to take a good long look at that level, and make a sale for that time frame. Our concern is based on indications for quite a few more corn acres next year.
Outside markets show the dollar and crude oil lower.
One last note for today: We have a Landus Cooperative Experience podcast. This features the Bull Bear Banter, which is a recap of the entire weeks CBOT movements. Listen to weekly episodes at https://landuscooperativeexperience.podbean.com/ or on your podcast app found on all smart phones.