Morning Comments September 24, 2018
Monday, September 24, 2018, 8:09 AM
Submitted by: Landus Cooperative
Corn steady to 1 lower
Beans 5 to 6 lower
The big news over the weekend is that Chinese officials have announced that they would “disengage” from scheduled talks with the U.S., refusing to negotiate under threats. The next round of tariffs go into effect today. This has put a damper on the recent upward movement in the soy complex. November futures were almost 17 cents higher last week, but have given back 6 1/4 of that in the overnight trade. The anticipated carry over for this year’s U.S. soybean crop is somewhere above 800 million bushels, with some estimates closing in on 900 million. This will continue to weigh on the futures market.
For corn, the main news story is about the variability in actual yields being seen across the country. While most analysts are slowly coming around to somewhere close to the latest USDA estimate of 181.3, many believe that to be a little too optimistic for the entire country. However, many are starting to concede that it could be close to 180. We’ll certainly know more in the next 30 days or so, but for the time being, even if we eventually cut overall yield back to 179 or 180, we’re still going to be looking at a large carry over this time next year, perhaps approaching 2 billion bushels.
In outside markets, crude oil is stronger as OPEC and Russia announce no changes will be made in production targets. The dollar was a little higher last week.
Harvest is ramping up again in most of the state, please continue to be safe!