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MARKET COMMENTARY

Weekly Market Summary September 21, 2018

Friday, September 21, 2018, 2:09 PM
Submitted by: Landus Cooperative


December corn closed up 4 3/4 at $357 1/4, 6 cents higher than last Friday. November beans closed down 3 at $8.47 1/4, 16 3/4 higher than last Friday.

 

Last Friday’s CFTC showed managed money added 6,586 contracts to their net corn position, putting them at -63,470 contracts. They also increased their short position on beans by 5,520 contracts to -68,269, the most bearish since January. Monday’s crop progress report showed both corn and soybean harvest progress ahead of average. NOPA’s crush report for August came in at 158.885 mbu. While still a record, it was about 5 mbu under most estimates. The downward pressure continued into Tuesday, with reports of ethanol plants slowing production due to the buildup of stocks and lower margins. Informa estimates were released Tuesday, projecting U.S. producers to plant 93.044 million acres of corn in 2019, 4 million more than this year. On the reverse side, analysts put soybean acres 7.33 million less than this year at 82.27 million acres.

 

Wednesday showed some turnaround potential for both markets, with talk that Argentina bought a couple cargoes of beans from the U.S. most likely to process into soybean meal and send on to China. So while not directly, China is still in the market for U.S. soy protein. While rains are starting to cause harvest delays locally, rain in southern parts of Brazil this week and setting up ideal conditions for the start of their planting season. Corn closed up 3 and soybeans closed up 16 cents on Wednesday. The momentum carried into Thursday with more news from Argentina regarding an increase in their corn export tax from 10.5% to 33%. This news combined with technicals had corn close up 6 and beans up 21 cents.

 

On the policy side, trade talked between the U.S. and Canada appear to be on the back burner. President Trump has once again moved forward on implementing the next round of tariffs on Chinese goods, approximately $267 billion worth. However, the stock market traded record numbers this week indicating optimism about our economic standing despite the tough time grain has had lately.

 

We hope you have an opportunity to enjoy the cooler weather this weekend! As always, be careful when you are out and about this harvest season.

 

 

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Ames, IA 50010
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