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MARKET COMMENTARY

Morning Comments July 17, 2018

Tuesday, July 17, 2018, 8:07 AM
Submitted by: Landus Cooperative


Opening Calls:

Corn up 4

Beans up 6

 

Yesterday, the September corn contract closed 1/2 cent higher settling at $3.41 3/4, and the December contract was 1/2 cent higher closing at $3.55 1/4. Corn traded higher yesterday for most of the day following beans higher but fell off with weakness in the wheat market. Funds are estimated to be short 115,000 contracts, and technicals spurred a short covering rally. The crop conditions report released at 3 pm surprised trade when the USDA dropped the crop rating by 3% down to 72%, with the biggest drops in MO down 15% and MI down 10%, leading corn higher on the overnight. Trade models are showing that the decline in weekly ratings have corn losing 2.3 bushels per acre of yield potential but still showing above normal yields.

 

The August bean contract closed 10 3/4 cents higher yesterday, settling at $8.29 1/2, and the November contract was 11 1/2 cents better settling at $8.45 3/4. Beans rallied yesterday as technicals showed beans becoming oversold. Crop conditions showed a 2% decline yesterday with MI declining 10% and MI dropping 8%. The decline in rating is showing a potential yield loss, but in the end, current ratings are still suggesting record yields in the 51. BPA range. Soybean exports shipments came in the middle of expectations at 23.4 million bushels, just shy of the number needed to reach the USDA’s expectations. Recent estimates in Brazil suggest farmers there will plant 88.9 mln acres of beans in 18/19 season; this is a 2.3% expansion over last year.

 

 

Chart compliments of Advance Trading:

Conditions    (Good + Excellent)

Corn Conditions

G/E: 72% TW vs. 75% LW, 64% LY

Soybean Conditions

G/E: 69% TW vs. 71% LW, 61% LY

Milo Conditions

G/E: 47% TW vs. 51% LW, 63% LY

Spring Wheat Conditions

G/E: 80% TW vs. 80% LW, 34% LY

Crop Progress Summary

Corn Silking

63% TW vs. 37% LW, 37% LY, 37% AVG

Soybean Blooming

65% TW vs. 47% LW, 49% LY, 45% AVG

 

 

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