Morning Comments June 12, 2018
Tuesday, June 12, 2018, 8:06 AM
Submitted by: Landus Cooperative
Corn up 2 to 3 cents
Soybeans up 3 to 5 cents
Nearby corn contracts closed 10 1/2 cents lower yesterday at $3.67 1/4, with funds being sellers of more than 20,000 contracts. Monday afternoon’s crop progress report showed U.S. corn at 94% emerged, ahead of last year’s 93% and the average of 92%. Little change in the percentage of the corn crop rating good/excellent, 77% vs. 78% last week, but still 10% higher than this time last year. Iowa’s was unchanged from last week at 81%.
July soybean contracts closed 15 1/2 cents lower yesterday at $9.53 3/4. In the crop progress report, emergence is at 83%, well ahead of last year’s 74% and the average of 69%. 74% of the crop is rated at good to excellent, 8% ahead of last year. Iowa did drop off from 80% last week to 78% this week, but it is still early for that to cause much concern.
USDA will release the monthly WASDE report today at 11:00 AM. Trade will be keeping a close eye on the production numbers for South America. Average estimate for Brazil’s corn production is 84 MMT compared to USDA’s May estimate of 87 MMT. Argentina’s production is also expected to be dropped slightly from 33 MMT to 32.4 MMT. Soybean production in Brazil is expected to be raised .5 MMT to 117.5 MMT, but trade is looking for a decrease in Argentina’s production from 39 MMT to 37.8 MMT. As always, it’s important to look at the range of estimates when determining what and how actual report numbers will affect the market.
The U.S. crop is off to a great start. At this point there does not seem to be a shortage of rain, but trade will be keeping a close eye on weather conditions ahead of July 4th. Remember to keep a close eye on your marketing plan and communicate your pricing goals with your GMA.