Morning Comments May 11, 2018
Friday, May 11, 2018, 9:05 AM
Submitted by: Landus Cooperative
Corn: 3 to 4 cents lower
Beans: 12 to 13 cents lower
The USDA Report was highlighted by changes the agency did – and didn’t – make. While projected carryout at the end of the 2019 marketing year were projected to fall by 590 million bushels vs. 2018, the government made no adjustment to its estimate of “normal” yields, leaving them at a statistical guess of 174 bushels per acre. In most years with slow planting the normal yield is lowered. The other significant reduction of note came on the world supply and demand balance sheet. USDA said global supplies would fall by 1.52 billion bushels in the year ahead. Nearly half of that total would come in China, in addition to reductions in the U.S. Still, increased production out of the Black Sea is expected to cut into U.S. export demand boosted by losses this spring and summer out of South America.
USDA provided a bullish jolt to the soybean market Thursday, cutting old crop ending stocks by 20 million bushels due to stronger crush, then slashing carryout for the 2018 marketing year by 115 million bushels to 415 million. While USDA reduced production from the record 2017 crop, it used an aggressive forecast for exports. That raised Chinese imports despite their government cutting its forecast due to higher prices caused by the U.S.-China trade dispute.
The June dollar index is trading lower this morning at 92.35. This morning the June crude oil contract is trading higher at just above the $71.50 level.
Have a good day!