MARKET COMMENTARY

Opening Calls:

Corn +2 to 3

Beans +6 to 8

Good morning!

With the typical “shoot first and ask questions later” market atmosphere we live in today, the grain markets are taking a step back today as they continue yesterday’s late-session rebound. Traders are realizing a trade war is not absolutely certain, and if it does happen could be months away before being implemented. We are seeing corn up 2-3 at the pause this morning and beans up 6-8.

The weekly export sales were above trade estimates for soybeans and below on corn.

Fresh news is hard to come by, but international relations are at the forefront of most traders’ minds. President Trump has assured Ag Secretary, Sonny Purdue, he was not going to allow the American farmer to suffer casualties if the trade dispute with China escalates. That’s somewhat comforting, but it will be interesting to see how this all plays out. Hopefully we have good luck with negotiations, because when push comes to shove, they need our beans and we need somewhere to go with our soybeans.

Brazilian soybean basis has soared over the past few days with domestic farmers turning giddy that they are the main supplier to China considering U.S. tariffs and Argentine drought. A 25% tariff on U.S. beans add $2.58 to the price of July beans, which would make U.S. prices non-competitive vs. South American prices.

Equities are trading higher following yesterday’s incredible recovery that saw the Dow bounce 750 points off the lows, to close roughly 250 points higher. The U.S. dollar is rebounding moderately, crude oil is a touch lower and China’s markets are closed or the holiday.

Thank you for your business, have a great day!