Morning Comments March 7, 2018
Wednesday, March 7, 2018, 8:03 AM
Submitted by: Landus Cooperative
Corn unchanged to down 2 cents
Soybeans down 2 to 4 cents
Most corn contracts closed 1-1 ½ cent higher yesterday, but overnight trade ended in the red this morning. Thursday we will see the monthly USDA end stocks report, where the average trade guess for U.S. corn ending stocks is 2.313 – an almost 39 mbu reduction from last month’s report. Analysts are also expecting corn production in South America to be reduced, 3.4 MMT in Brazil and 2.5 MMT in Argentina.
Soybean trade ended mixed on Tuesday. Nearby contracts saw 2-3 cent losses, while new crop closed 3 cents in the green. Nearby soymeal futures also closed down $4.80/ton in the nearby, and soy oil closed up 29 points. Analysts do not expect the USDA to change the U.S. soybean ending stocks from 530 mbu in tomorrow’s report, but estimates range from 490 to 590 mbu so anything outside of that could cause an upset in the market. The numbers most people will be looking at are South America’s soybean production estimates. While Brazilian production is expected to be increased 1.9 MMT, the dry weather in Argentina has traders looking for a 5.5 MMT drop in Argentinian production.
Even with markets down slightly this morning, there is still time to take advantage of the rally we have been experiencing the last few weeks – don’t give up dime or quarter gains because you missed out on a few pennies.