Morning Comments January 15, 2018
Monday, January 15, 2018, 9:01 AM
Submitted by: Landus Cooperative
Reminder, the Chicago Board of Trade is closed today in observance of the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday. Trade will resume this evening at 7PM
On Friday, after the latest WASDE from the USDA, nearby corn closed down 2, making new contract lows. For the week, March futures lost 5 cents. The WASDE report showed an increase of 1.2 bushels per acre to 176.6, but with U.S. harvested acres down 400,000, overall production increased slightly to 14.604 billion bushels. Total demand was down slightly, but exports remained unchanged from the last report at 1.925 billion. This leave ending stocks at 2.477 billion and a stocks to use ratio of 17.1%, which is very comfortable.
For soybeans, the USDA reduced yield by 0.4 bushels, at 49.1 bushel/acre. They left acres alone, and that resulted in 4.392 billion bushels of production. Exports were reduced 60 million, which leaves ending stocks estimated at 470 million, and a pretty comfortable stocks to use ratio of 11.1%. All in all, fairly good news for beans (compared to expectations), pushing March futures up 10 cents for the day, but still down 10 for the week.
Given all of the above, we would expect to trade in a fairly narrow range, and also expect each subsequent futures month to dwindle down to previous levels, once they become the nearby futures month. In other words, while we have a carry in the market today, especially for corn, we believe the best way to take advantage of that carry, is to sell it prior to delivery. We would encourage you to look at the current bids for March, April and May delivery now, not wait for those months to get here. The same is true for New Crop corn. Sometimes, especially in markets like this, the best values for Fall delivery come early in the calendar year, not later. We would also encourage you to look at October of 2019 delivery bids. Again, especially for corn, we believe there is value in putting an offer in slightly above the current market. If you can deliver off the combine at or around 3.50, we believe you should lock some of that up now.
Today is also a good day to touch base with your local Grain Marketing Advisor. Talk about your price goals and let us see if there is a good way to get you to those levels.
Finally, please see the schedule below for the upcoming Innovator Meetings. We’d like to encourage you to try to attend one of these.
For grain, we will be talking mostly about our Averaging Contracts that are available for New Crop and Old Crop, corn and beans.
Agenda for each Innovators Workshop
3:15 - 3:45 p.m. Registration
3:45 - 5:00 p.m.
Grain Marketing Updates
Precision Tools to Focus ROI
Research Plot Results Analysis
5:00 - 6:30 p.m. Networking and Social Hour
City Venue Date
Jefferson Wild Rose Casino Tuesday, January 16th
Templeton Templeton Center Wednesday, January 17th
Menlo 5x80 Country Club Thursday, January 18th
Thompson Branding Iron Tuesday, January 23rd
Greene American Legion Hall Wednesday, January 24th
Parkersburg Legend Trail Golf Course Thursday, January 25th
Please RSVP at (887) 778-2226 if you plan to attend any of these.