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MARKET COMMENTARY

USDA Reports Recap June 30, 2017

Friday, June 30, 2017, 2:06 PM
Submitted by: Landus Cooperative


Today, at 11 a.m., the USDA released 2 reports.

 

One gave an update on planted acres. Corn acres are now estimated at 90.886 million vs. 89.99 in the March report. Soybean acres did not change as much as most people expected and are now pegged at 89.513 vs. the March report at 89.48 million.

 

The second report dealt with stocks as of June 1st. Corn is estimated at 5.225 billion vs. an average analyst estimate of 5.160 and June of 2016 at 4.711. Soybeans are estimated at 963 million with the average estimate at 981 and June of 2016 at 872. 

 

So, what does all of this mean? On the acreage front, not nearly as many bean acres switched as most assumed. Corn is still king in the U.S. and actually gained almost 900,000 acres. Bean acres are up slightly, up about 33,000 acres. This in and of itself, is probably behind the strong uptick we’ve seen since the report was released. Just prior to the report, beans were back to unchanged, and even a penny to 2 lower. Almost immediately, beans went to double digits higher and finished the day with August futures up 26 1/4 and November up 30. The estimated stocks also support higher bean values, with the actual estimate being slightly lower than the analysts combined average indicating slightly better demand through the end of May than was anticipated. 

 

For corn, the picture is not quite as rosy, with both acres and stocks above the average of the estimates. Prior to the close, it looked like corn was struggling. Without the soy complex strength, not to mention wheat, corn would most likely have traded lower than Thursday’s close. However, we finished the day with September corn futures up 11 1/2 cents and December up 12. Prior to the report they were trading about 8 to 10 higher, but then dropped back to only 4-5 higher before a fairly strong finish. Crude Oil is up a little more than a dollar and the dollar is only slightly higher, so maybe that also helped corn today. 

 

Enjoy the weekend and have a safe 4th of July.

 

 

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