AM Comments 08/15/16
Monday, August 15, 2016, 12:08 PM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The USDA report is officially out of the way and for those who didn’t see it Friday, the report was bearish. The USDA has corn yield at 175.1 bpa and production at 15.15 billion bushels – if that holds both numbers would be records. Soybean yield was projected at 48.9 bpa with production of 4.06 billion bushels – we have never had a 4 billion bushel soybean crop before. This of course knocked prices lower but as Friday wore on the market shook that off with corn closing higher and beans closing mixed. A way too simple story on the recovery: corn yields will likely struggle to get bigger from here and a record soybean crop still only gives us a 330 million bushel carryout? Not enough wiggle room.
Now for today with the USDA S&D out of the way, outside of a little weather to finish the bean crop the market should focus on two things: demand and farmer selling. As for demand: China is back and they have been active which is of course friendly. As for farmer selling… not much interest in here just yet. We will also be keeping an eye on the other reports coming out, we have the NOPA soybean crush report later today as well as the crop progress/conditions report that will be out this afternoon. The main weather discussions this week could gravitate towards the flooding in the Delta and while that may not have much effect on crop size, that weather pattern this time of year tends to ding the Delta’s quality quite a bit which could hinder the ability for vessels get loaded in September…
Corn 3 to 4 cents higher
Soybeans 14 to 18 cents higher
Have a great day!
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