AM Comments 08/11/16
Thursday, August 11, 2016, 1:08 PM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The corn and soybean futures markets are pretty quiet so far this morning, trading steady/mixed as we approach the August S&D which will be out at 11am tomorrow. The average trade guess on corn yield is just shy of 171 bpa (the July S&D had it at 168 bpa) while the average soybean yield guess is 47.5 bpa (it was 46.7bpa in July). So as you can see, the market is expecting an increase in production which we have all seen get factored into the market recently with the lower trending prices, especially corn.
The weekly export sales report was out at 7:30am and soybean sales came in higher than expected, which was somewhat hard to do because the market was already expecting some big numbers. Also, at 8am there was another flash sale reported of US soybeans, 120k MT to China and 129k MT to “unknown” (hint: “unknown” tends to mean “China”). The soybean demand keeps clicking away which is nice to see and could keep prices supported.
Overall for today, we need to be ready for a mixed/choppy trade with tomorrow’s report hanging over our heads. We may see an early pop in soybean price this morning thanks to the new sales but that S&D tomorrow could be a significant market mover. Those with flat price risk (up or down) may need to sit up straight and pay attention for this one.
Have a great day!
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