AM Comments 08/05/16
Friday, August 5, 2016, 12:08 PM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Soybeans are making an attempt at a breakout trade to the upside as November soybean futures at one time were up almost 20 cents overnight. To many who watch the technicals/charts – a stronger close today to end the week would be a positive sign in soybeans which could help the overall structure of the market for the bulls. As the market gets more and more comfortable with the large production coming out of the U.S. they will continue to price that in which could keep rallies in check. However, what is good to see is that the U.S. is competitive in the world markets (at least now through Feb) which is obviously needed this year. We are still seeing reports of new export business being announced in both commodities and the export hubs out of this country are reflecting that with firming basis levels.
One week from today is the big USDA crop report where many of course are expecting changes to production estimates – adjusting them higher. We saw some survey numbers from FCStone a few days ago (BIG yields) and later this morning the very well followed private company Informa will be out with their estimates. Like usual, there will be a ton of different private estimates to sift through between now and report day and the results could be all over the board – so tread lightly. As I touched on above, what the USDA does with projected export demand for next year will be important also. When you put it all together, next Friday has the potential for fireworks – one way or the other.
Corn is 1 to 2 cents higher
Soybeans are 10 to 15 cents higher
Have a great day!
Did you notice I didn’t talk about weather? Weird, right? Things look good over here this weekend and tonight the Eastern Corn Belt is projected to get some of the rain we saw yesterday – which they could use.
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