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MARKET COMMENTARY

AM Comments 07/26/16

Tuesday, July 26, 2016, 1:07 PM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner


It was a fairly stable trade last night with corn and wheat a little lower and soybeans trying to gain some of what they lost yesterday - trading a touch higher. With what we saw yesterday in beans (down over 20c) it appears the funds don’t want to be long anymore, likely due in part to a consistent flow of trade guesses on US soybean yields that look improved. The only caveat to taking beans down too far, too fast is the large demand base that hasn’t shown signs of weakness. Gut feel to me is that if the US bean production holds in there OK, prices could continue drift lower until we start discuss planting/growing weather, etc. out of South America this fall. After that – all bets are off because it seems we are always one crop problem away from fireworks in the soybean market.

 

Outside markets… crude oil is making new 3-month lows this morning as it is working on it 4th day in a row of lower closes.  The charts show crude oil breaking through the 100-day moving average last week and it could continue to slip which could weigh a little heavy on things. Other than that the $US is a little weaker while the financial markets are relatively flat.

 

Yesterday afternoon’s weekly crop progress report had corn conditions unchanged at 76% good-to-excellent (it was 70% G/E at this time last year). Simply put, there were declines in NE/KS/SD/OH/MI which were offset by increases though the I-states (and more) in IA/IL/IN/MN/MO. Soybean conditions were also unchanged at 71% G/E (we were 62% G/E last year). Similar story as in corn with declines being offset by increases in the I-states.

 

Overall, with the weather outlook favorable and yield thoughts increasing the bulls may have to start looking at the demand side of the equation for support…

 

Opening Calls

Corn 2 to 3 cents lower

Soybeans steady to 3 cents higher

 

Have a great day!

 

@landuscoopgrain

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dustin Weiner
2321 N. Loop Drive, Ste. 220 Ames IA 50010-8218
O: 515-817-2144 | C: 515-460-3228
Dustin.Weiner@landuscooperative.com

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