AM Comments 07/19/16
Tuesday, July 19, 2016, 1:07 PM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The overnight session was lower last night, giving back all of yesterday’s gains and then some. While there are a few scattered rain in parts of the western belt this morning, all eyes are on the high temps coming over the same area for the next 3-4 days. The weather maps do show temps easing off a bit in the 6-10 day forecast, but precip looks to stay below normal. Generally speaking with the heat only lasting 3-4 days the market isn’t too concerned and has unsurprisingly taken some risk premium out of the market. I suppose shaving the top off of what looks like a bin buster is only a minor setback…
The crop conditions report yesterday showed conditions unchanged for the U.S. (76% G/E on corn and 71% G/E on beans). This is what the market expected so the only real story here is that there was nothing ‘friendly to prices’ for the bulls to discuss.
Overall for today – our markets are still all about the weather. Eyes are starting to turn to the extended forecasts, looking for clues. I’ve seen a few private weather estimates calling for August to be a bit more favorable than last suggested, but at the same time the 8-14 day maps look a tad concerning with above normal temps returning. I do feel that the night session was maybe overdone (corn was down 8, beans were down 16) and wouldn’t be surprised to see us bounce back a bit at some point today. 100 degree temps tend to make their way into the news which could lend support. We haven’t found many willing to sell corn at these prices and with the funds already getting their positions close to net short – I’m not confident we will find too many new sellers in here…
Corn 5 to 8 cents lower
Soybeans 12 to 16 cents lower
Have a great day!
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