AM Comments 07/01/16
Friday, July 1, 2016, 1:07 PM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
As the dust settles from yesterday’s stocks & acreage reports our markets were slightly lower last night. As many of you may know by now, the USDA gave us a surprise by confirming that the US farmer planted 94.1 million acres of corn (3rd highest on record) and 83.7 million acres of beans (a new record). The corn number was damaging to prices as the market was caught leaning the other way and corn fell double digits immediately and never truly recovered. The record bean acres were viewed as “not enough” thanks to continued strong demand and the bean market actually rallied. Just another June 30th report day, enough volatility to make you queasy.
So here we are, it is a new month and we have already fallen back into familiar territory – watching the weather. Currently the maps are showing above normal temps with normal to above normal rain which is viewed as non-threatening to crops and could be helping prices slip lower. Something to think about: as we approach the end of the day (and a start of a 3-day weekend for the trade) we may see prices slip a little higher. How the heck did I come up with that? Well… if there is going to be a change in weather this weekend, the market is already trading an acceptable weather forecast - meaning if there was a true market moving change in weather it would likely be due to forecast that is warmer/drier/etc. That thought process may cause those who are short to be a little nervous (thus buying their shorts back). That could be a stretch (the weather could stay the same, only for longer – which would be bearish) so please, please don’t trade off of this, but with corn prices dropping as fast as they did – seeing people bottom-picking at these price levels wouldn’t be surprising.
Corn 1 to 2 cents lower
Soybeans 6 to 10 cents lower
Have a great day!
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