AM Comments 06/20/16
Monday, June 20, 2016, 12:06 PM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Our markets were sharply lower last night, mostly due to weather. When looking at the maps (6-10 day maps are below) it seems hard to justify the sharply lower trade, but while temps are still expected to remain above normal – the important thing is that they aren’t as severe as we had thought last week. Also, as far as rain goes, the precip map has flipped to a more normal pattern with better nearby rain chances for the corn belt. Of course, the weather story is a long ways from over and the market will be paying attention to any changes as new models get released during the session.
While we know that the trade is keeping one eye on the weather, I’m guessing the other eye is on “Brexit”. The vote will take place Thursday (results released Friday?) to determine whether or not Britain will depart the European Union. With many unofficial polls flip-flopping from projecting yes or no - the volatility in the financial/currency markets has already risen. The most recent poll appears to say that the UK will be voting to remain a part of the EU. This is helping the financial markets pop higher and is helping the British currency (Pound) rally. That strong Pound has the $US index trading weaker which could (eventually) help support our commodity prices today…
This afternoon we will have an updated look at crop conditions, the market looks like it has priced in a 2-4% drop in good-to-excellent ratings today. That report of course is out this afternoon (after the close) and any deviations from that projection will be traded tonight. Overall for today we look for a lower open but understand that with the outside markets offering support – any bullish changes in weather forecasts could quickly pop us back closer to Friday’s close.
Corn 7 to 9 cents lower
Soybeans 10 to 15 cents lower
Have a great day!
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