AM Comments 06/14/16
Tuesday, June 14, 2016, 12:06 PM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Our markets leaked lower last night as the trade wrestles with favorable crop conditions and potentially concerning weather forecasts. First, when looking at the good to excellent ratings in yesterday afternoon’s weekly crop report – things look pretty good. Corn conditions came in at 75% G/E which was surprisingly a touch better than last week and is still running well ahead of the 5-year average of 69%. Soybean conditions improved to 74% G/E and the market was expecting them to be same as last week (72%). That report is what helped both corn and soybean futures spend the majority of the overnight session lower.
Now, on to weather. Generally speaking the weather is still seen as a bullish input. While we do have rains in the short term, the 6-10 day outlook still has temps running above normal. Also the precip in the extended forecast seems spotty/patchy at best. This Thursday NOAA will update its long term (seasonal) weather forecasts. While they aren’t something you want to take to the bank (just like any other forecast), they can be interesting to look at.
Overall for today we look to start off lower, not only due to improved conditions but also thanks to some bearish outside markets as the $US is sharply firmer. I wouldn’t rule out a two-sided trade though as we are in a weather market which is still very much unsettled.
Corn 2 to 3 cents lower
Soybeans 5 to 10 cents lower
Have a great day!
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