AM Comments 06/10/16
Friday, June 10, 2016, 12:06 PM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Today is report day with the USDA out at 11am with an updated look at both old crop and new crop corn and soybean S&Ds. Generally speaking, the production side of the forecasts probably won’t change much here in the U.S. as the trade expects projected yields to remain unchanged for now. There will be some interest in what South American production numbers look like but it feels like the story of the report will center around projected demand numbers. While the June report isn’t known for major surprises, it is no secret that processing margins are firm and export business has been coming to the U.S. - meaning some increases in demand (which would decrease carryout projections) are expected. This is why most trade estimates show reductions in carryout.
Overnight our markets were pretty slow, trading on both sides of yesterday’s close but they did firm up as the sun started to rise. The USDA is stealing some of the thunder away from the weather market this morning, but I expect that we will digest the USDA numbers by noon and be trading off of updated forecasts as we work into the close. As I mentioned here a day or so ago, with the heat we are experiencing the next couple days – keeping the moisture in the forecast will be important for the bears if we are to keep these markets calmed down.
Corn 1 to 2 cents higher
Soybeans 2 to 4 cents higher
Have a great day!
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