AM Comments 05/16/16
Monday, May 16, 2016, 12:05 PM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Our markets were mixed overnight - soybeans were showing small gains when I turned the screen on this morning, but have since followed corn and are currently trading a few cents lower. As we start the new week, the weather forecasts appear mostly bearish... The planting story of the day involves the northern parts of the belt who will get a break from wet weather – getting a chance to get back in the field. Also, the cold snap over the weekend doesn’t look like it did much crop damage while forecasted temps appear to be trending warmer from here.
You will see on the map below that the southern belt does have heavy rain in the forecast, any unplanted acres down there may stay that way for the short term. Not sure yet how much of a conversation piece that will be. This afternoon the USDA will release their weekly report updating us on crop progress and conditions. Corn will likely come in somewhere around 75% planted, compared to 82% LY and ahead of the 5-year average of 70%. Soybean planting should come in around 35% planted, compared to 41% LY and ahead of the 5-year average of 32%.
Outside markets… the Commitment of Traders report Friday showed the funds at a near-record long in soybeans. This has soybean traders a little nervous because if/when profit-taking from the funds shows up, it could be aggressive. Overall for today with good weather and limited news, the markets will likely follow suit from overnight and chop around at/below Friday’s close. Informa (a well followed private company) will be out around 10:30 this morning with their updated estimates on acreage. While this is only one opinion – the market may move a bit if there are any major changes.
Corn 2 to 3 cents lower
Soybeans 1 to 3 cents lower
Have a great day!
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