AM Comments 04/22/16
Friday, April 22, 2016, 1:04 PM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
We are seeing a weaker trade to end the week, soybeans are down 20c this morning but are STILL over 30c higher on the week. Corn had a rough day yesterday and is weaker again today which means it is notching small gains on the week of just a few cents. There wasn’t a whole lot of fundamental news out last night, but the most obvious one was the Argentina Ag Ministry releasing their updated production forecast for soybeans. All week we have been attempting to tie the inflow of fund money to decreased crop size in Argentina, well… The updated production forecast shows it dropping to 57.6mmt. That is 3.3mmt less that their previous forecast and is 1.4mmt less that what the last WASDE report showed. So yes, the Argentina crop has been clipped a bit but it appears the market had that factored in (or maybe some expected a bigger drop) and beans sold off overnight. Classic ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ action so far today.
The weather outlook for South America seems to be improving which is also bearish. Looks like it’s forecasted to dry off a bit in Argentina (allowing bean harvest to move forward) and there are some much-needed rains forecasted for Brazil, helping that double crop corn progress. It’s too early for me to say that SA weather has completely turned around down there – but this is a decent looking forecast which will likely keep prices under pressure today.
Corn 3 to 5 cents lower
Soybeans 10 to 20 cents lower
Have a great day!
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