AM Comments 02/25/16
Thursday, February 25, 2016, 7:02 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The USDA’s outlook conference started this morning, and right off the bat we received some planted acreage projections along with price outlooks.
o 16/17 Acres: 90.0m, up 2.0m from 88.0m in 2015
o 16/17 Average Price: $3.45/bu
o 16/17 Acres: 82.5m, down 200k from 82.7m in 2015
o 16/17 Average Price: $8.50/bu
o 16/17 Acres: 51.0m, down 3.6m from 54.6m in 2015
If you were watching the market trade as this news came out, the corn market didn’t flinch. I think many in the trade had expected to see these early projections reflect a significant rise in corn acres (which likely explains the weakness the past few days). Soybeans did inch maybe a touch higher when the numbers were released. This makes sense as I didn’t see many projections showing bean acres slipping. Normally this “news” is quickly forgotten as the market starts to look towards weather outlooks and the all-important March 31st Prospective Plantings & Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.
The USDA did release its weekly export sales report this morning. Corn sales… we’d call them OK, on the low end of guesses but OK. Beans/meal/oil sales… all kind of disappointing, they came in either below or at bottom end of guesses. Overall for today it appears we have a good shot to hold onto these small gains all day. The outside markets are a touch weaker right now (crude oil is currently down around 50c) – if they snowball lower, that is one thing that could derail a positive corn/soybean market today.
Corn steady to 1c higher
Soybeans 2 to 4 cents higher
Have a great day!