AM Comments 01/25/16
Monday, January 25, 2016, 7:01 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
It has been a quiet overnight session with most opening calls reflecting a weaker trade. The general thought process today - the funds covered some of their shorts last week and with no new bullish fundamental news… it appears that right now they won’t need to be in there again (buying) to start off the week this week. So here we sit with both corn and soybeans trading a touch lower overnight, waiting for direction.
South American weather/production remains a bearish input as there are reports showing Brazil’s weather conditions will remain very good for most of Brazil for the next couple weeks. Some are now predicting a record crop in South America and it appears that short-term weather forecasts could bring more people into that crowd.
The outside markets this week will be a primary focus, and those trading them will spend time trying to determine whether oil prices have (temporarily) bottomed out or not. The Shanghai Composite also appeared to have rebounded last week, so in similar fashion to crude oil - the trade has hope there that things are turning around – but we may need to take a ‘wait and see’ approach for now.
If the outside markets can stay on the trend they were last week, we may be able to keep corn/sb prices up in this range and you could make the case for a rally from here back towards the Dec highs and 100-day moving average (about a dime higher than we are now). Quick perspective on price: since the market close 2-weeks ago today (Jan 11th), corn is up around 18c and soybeans are up just shy of 15c.
Corn steady/mixed to 1c lower
Soybeans steady to 2c lower
Have a great day!