AM Comments 11/25/15
Wednesday, November 25, 2015, 8:11 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
We saw mostly firmer markets last night as we get closer to Thanksgiving, this trend of firmer markets actually tends to happen most years over Thanksgiving but it is worth noting that this generally happens on low volume and I’d expect volume to be light this week as well. For the bulls, it is nice to look at the charts and see that both corn and soybeans are both still trading above the recent lows that were put in (made last week in corn and made earlier this week in soybeans).
The two main fundamental stories out there involve South American growing conditions and the overall demand outlook – and both of them lack fireworks. In regards to South America, weather down there remains OK and it does not appear to be an issue. Currently it is a mixed input as it is wet in the South and dry in the West. As for the outlook for demand? While it is still off of pace and remains concerning – with a void of farmer selling the nearby demand that is out there remains somewhat uncovered which is keeping basis and spreads firm. Many in the trade are already discussing the potential future issue of what the cash market will look like when the producer does decide to sell. It would of course pressure basis/spreads but it could also really put pressure on logistics if it all tries to move at the same time.
For today, it looks like the recent ranges that we have notched out should hold, and will likely continue to hold until we get a new piece of news to trade. The outside markets could end up applying pressure to prices today as the $US has turned higher.
Note that there are no markets tomorrow, they will reopen Friday morning at the normal time but will close early (at noon) on Friday.
Corn steady to 2 cents higher
Soybeans steady to 2 cent lower
Have a great day!