A.M. Comments 8/21/2015
Friday, August 21, 2015, 8:08 AM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz
Turning the page on another week, it looks to be finishing up on a quiet note. Corn futures are steady/even and soybean futures are under some pressure at the morning break. Pro Farmer released yield estimates for IA/MN last night and (as could’ve been expected) the numbers are pretty big. Iowa is estimated to be at 180 bu/ac (vs. USDA of 183) and Minnesota is estimated at 190 (vs. USDA of 184). These numbers may add some bearish sentiment to trading action – however, most yield estimates coming from the tour have been lower than USDA projections. Overall, we have to take these projections with a grain of salt. There are so many variables that can positively or negatively affect the final production number which we cannot account for yet (test weight, drowned-outs, disease, etc.).
Locally, grain movement has been slow as most remain uninterested at current price levels. This is reflected in spreads and basis. Corn spreads have firmed up and corn basis does have a firmer tone. Soybean basis feels weak; every day we get closer to the old crop price converging on the new crop price as bean harvest moves north.
Outside markets haven’t lost any volatility. The dollar is lower this morning and so is crude oil. The Dow Jones was down big yesterday and is under pressure again today. While it may feel like a quiet close to the week for grain news, there is plenty going on elsewhere that will keep things interesting into the weekend.
Corn steady to up 1c
Soybeans down 4-6c
Have a great day!