AM Comments 7/17/15
Friday, July 17, 2015, 8:07 AM
Submitted by: Eric Kist
Grains are lower heading into this morning’s break in trading, as corn is 5 ½ cents lower, and beans are down 6 cents. We are seeing some follow-through selling from yesterday’s poor close, which has been attributed to rumors of Argentine soymeal being imported into the Southeastern United States. The import/export picture for grains is currently unfavorable for the United States, as importing nations are able to source corn, beans, and wheat elsewhere around the globe at discounted prices compared to U.S.-origin grain. To date, new-crop corn export sales are down 25% from last year, and new-crop soybean export sales are 47% behind last year’s pace!
Further compounding the pressure on grains today is the strength of the US Dollar, which is trading at 6-week highs. When discussing imports/exports, a stronger $ comparative to the currencies of importing nations places an additional premium on U.S. Grains, and with a glut of world supplies available, importing nations have thus far been able to source cheaper grain elsewhere.
Aside from the demand portion of the equation, the supply side is focused on current weather forecasts and long-term weather trends, which call for normal temperatures and precipitation for the Midwest through August. All-in-all, expect the markets to be pressured today on drier weather outlooks and unconducive outside markets.
Corn: 5-6c lower
Beans: 6-8c lower