AM Comments 04/22/15
Wednesday, April 22, 2015, 7:04 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
Good morning! Simply put, there isn’t much for market-moving news and the markets have been quiet because of it. As of today, there are no threatening weather forecasts to talk about with the planting window projected to be cranked wide open starting late this week, early next week. While temps are cool across the Corn Belt now, the forecasts are mostly dry and temperatures are expected to warm up by mid next week.
In regards to the bird flu problem which has been cropping up all over the migratory bird flight path from IA->MN->SD… from what I read there have been a total of 6.928 million birds lost since late December. I’m not an expert on this but I’ve been told a rough rule of thumb for demand is 1 bushel per 4-6 chickens from start to finish, so… only around 1.5 million bushels of corn demand lost? (yes some of the losses have been turkeys, but that should get us close). It is worth mentioning that poultry operations can crank production back up faster than any other livestock sector. Also, as birds are killed in some places they are likely quickly replaced in others. Generally what I’m saying is that for the corn/soymeal markets the impact seems more psychological than actual (so far). The two general fears are a) it spreading and b) consumer demand – exports especially - for poultry changing (even though bird flu hasn’t been show to pass to humans).
Overall for today look for another choppy trade as markets follow the planting pace, weather changes and the outside markets.
Corn down 1 to 2 cents
Soybeans down 2 to 4 cents
Have a great day!