AM Comments 04/09/15
Thursday, April 9, 2015, 7:04 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The weekly export sales report was out this morning (reflecting sales made last week) and it was bearish beans while slightly friendly to corn and wheat. Old crop beans sales were negative, indicating cancellations. Corn sales were a touch above the guesses but nothing overly shocking.
The monthly Supply and Demand report will be released at 11am today. While the April S&D isn’t known for being especially exciting – it is another chance for the USDA to help the market hit the reset button in regards to carryouts this summer. Estimates for today’s report… The average trade guess for the corn carryout is around 1.85 billion bushels (slightly higher than the March number). The average trade guess for the soybean carryout is around 370 million bushels (slightly lower than the March number). Anything deviating too far from those levels will cause immediate reaction in price.
Generally speaking the guesses showing a slight reduction in the soybean carryout is thought to be due to increased domestic crush, as evidenced by strong meal export sales. The guesses showing a slight increase in the corn carryout is thought to be due to decreased domestic feed use which was indicated to the market in that March 31 stocks report. At 11am we will all be a bit smarter (just a bit)…
Soybeans down 3 to 5 cents
Have a great day!