AM Comments 03/10/15
Tuesday, March 10, 2015, 7:03 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The $US dollar jumped again overnight, mainly against the Euro and the yen, and that has the board under pressure as the $US index is again making new multi-year highs. So… after a little short covering yesterday it appears those gains are being given back with the next injection of fundamental news coming at 11am with the S&D report release from the USDA.
CARRYOUT ESTIMATES FOR TODAY’S S&D REPORT:
· Corn – the average trade guess is 1.826bb, Feb was 1.827bb (pretty much unchanged)
· Soybeans – the average trade guess is 376mb, Feb was 385mb (slight decrease thanks to strong crush/exports).
Overall, assuming the $US stays firm, it could be tough to rally unless the USDA surprises us with some bullish news or the meeting with the Brazilian Gov’t and the Brazilian Truckers Association goes sour. I do have this feeling that not long after the report has been digested – assuming no major surprises – the trade may be stuck looking at projections of nothing but “adequate carry-outs” and a strong $US which could make it a little too easy to let the markets leak lower. After that however, direction should start to come from extended weather forecasts and positioning ahead of the March 31 planting intentions and quarterly stocks reports.
Corn steady to 2 cents lower
Soybeans 3 to 5 cents lower
Have a great day!