AM Comments 03/05/15

Thursday, March 5, 2015, 7:03 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner

The weekly export sales report was out this morning and soybean sales were a little stronger than expected which popped soybean futures higher right after the report was released at 7:30am. Corn sales were in line with guesses and has had little (if any) effect on prices this morning.


Overnight the markets were all mixed to lower after the substantial losses yesterday. Soybeans have dropped below $10 on the board and below the 50-day moving average which means the easy money will likely be hitting the sell button here in the short term.  Corn has actually been pretty resilient, with that chart getting wound tight like a spring, trading in a relatively narrow range.  It feels like that market is ready for a breakout and with the USDA report coming out Tuesday, the fundamental news needed for that could be coming.  Up or down though, that is the question…


Cash markets… corn basis feels a little firmer in certain spots of the corn belt, likely in response to the lower board and lack of farmer selling.  Soybean basis on the other hand feels a little weaker as that “trucker strike rally” gifted producers a nice selling opportunity.  Also, with the strike pretty much over, the basis at the U.S. Gulf has retreated significantly as the threat of reduced SA export capacity subsides for now.


Overall for today, in the face of negative technicals (the charts) the markets look like they are instead going to try to rebound in price today thanks to decent weekly soybean export sales once again.  The market is waiting for a sign that the US soybean export program is over, and didn’t get that today.


Opening Calls

Corn steady/mixed

Soybeans 2 to 4 cents higher


Have a great day!





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