PM Comments 2/11/15

Wednesday, February 11, 2015, 3:02 PM
Submitted by: Eric Kist

Market recap:

Corn – dn 2 ¼     Beans – up 8 ¾

Follow-up selling from yesterday prompted corn to trade lower into the close, based on weak technical signals and a lack of fresh fundamental support.  The EIA released their weekly ethanol production numbers this morning, which showed a slight increase in output week-over-week, but also saw stocks increase in turn.  As widely assumed, a lower production trend may develop in the near-term, but if the EIA’s assumption of increasing fuel demand heading into spring/summer holds true, ethanol production should rebound to strong levels. 

Soybeans traded higher to recover nearly all of yesterday’s loss to finish at 9.77 ¾ in the March futures.  Soybean meal and oil also enjoyed positive days to support the entire soy complex.  The current soybean export pace is 118% of last year, but at the same time remaining open sales are down 22% from LY, which raises the question of whether or not we can sell more beans in the face of the South American crop and a strong US $. 

Yesterday’s USDA report was basically a non-event in the eyes of the market, as it had limited staying power in the trade.  The next bit of information from the USDA will be its projected forecast of new crop supply/demand for the 15/16 marketing year during the Outlook Forum held on February 19th and 20th.  



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