AM Comments 02/10/15
Tuesday, February 10, 2015, 8:02 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The USDA report will be out at 11am this morning and the trade prior to that looks to be slow and maybe a touch weaker although trading two-sides is possible if not likely. The general estimates for this report are calling for corn ending stocks to be mostly unchanged while soybean ending stocks are expected to shrink a touch (likely due to strong pace of exports in both beans and meal). Honestly though, I’d be lying if I said I expected many fireworks today. This Feb report is known for being a quiet one. The real excitement should come in March when we get to bicker about acres/stocks/etc/etc/.
However, even though this report may end up not being earth shattering – we still could see some interesting price action because of where corn sits on a chart for example. Corn yesterday rallied to levels it hasn’t see since early/mid January! If we get some friendly news today corn could break out above that mark and potentially test its 200 day moving average (about a dime higher)... If this happens I would expect heavy farmer selling as we approach prices we haven’t seen in a while. I need to also mention that if friendly news doesn’t show up, this market could easily drift lower. You may have heard the saying – “you have to feed a bull market every day” – well, a neutral report today may actually end up dropping prices as the bulls go hungry.
Overall, this market is looking for direction and even though the trade anticipates very little changes in today’s report – everyone is hoping for a new “input” to justify breaking out of current ranges.
Corn 1 to 3 cents lower
Soybeans 2 to 4 cents lower
Have a great day!