Fccoop

MARKET COMMENTARY

weekly grain TP's

Wednesday, January 14, 2015, 11:01 AM
Submitted by: Jon Setterdahl


  • QUITE A BIT GOING ON HERE THIS WEEK…STARTING WITH MONDAY’S USDA QUARTERLY STOCKS AND S&D REPORT.  BULLS WERE EXPECTING LAST YEAR’S ACRES TO BE REVISED DOWNWARD…”HARVESTED” CORN ACRES STAYED UNCHANGED AT 83.1MLN AND “HARVESTED” BEAN ACRES ONLY REDUCED 300K TO 83.1MLN (STRANGELY IDENTICAL?).  CORN STOCKS WERE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED, DESPITE A DROP IN YIELD…IMPLIES LESS THAN EXPECTED FEED USAGE. RESULTING CARRYOUTS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED ON BEANS AT 410MLN AND LOWERED SLIGHTLY ON CORN TO 1,877BLN.  BIG CONCERN IS THAT DEMAND CATEGORY ESTIMATES STILL LOOK PRETTY STRONG, AND COULD BE IN STORE FOR FUTURE DECLINES….THAT WOULD GO DIRECTLY TO INCREASED CARRYOUT.

               

  • ENERGY STILL GRINDING LOWER, BUT MAY BE NEARING SOME STABILITY AT MID $40’S CRUDE OIL.  WEEKLY ETHANOL STOCKS HAVE BALLOONED TO 20.2MLN BARRELS, HIGHEST IN 2 YEARS.  CONCERN IS LEGIT THAT ETHANOL SECTOR MAY SLOW PRODUCTION AS WE HEAD INTO SPRING.

 

  • FUNDS HAVE BEEN UNLOADING CORN LONGS…CHART SUPPORT LEVELS HAVE BEEN BROKEN ON BOTH CORN AND BEANS THE PAST 2 DAYS.

 

  • EXPORT ACTIVITY SO-SO.  NEEDS TO BE BETTER THAN THAT FOR CORN.  BEANS WILL BE WINDING DOWN IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS AS CHINA SHIFTS TO S.AMERICAN SUPPLIES.

 

  • WESTERN RAIL CARRIERS CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM MARKET EXPECTATIONS…HAS ACTUALLY BEEN SOME FREIGHT COMMITMENTS CANCELLED THE PAST WEEK. 

 

 

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