Fccoop

MARKET COMMENTARY

weekly grain TP's

Wednesday, December 3, 2014, 3:12 PM
Submitted by: Jon Setterdahl


12-3-14

WEEKLY GRAIN TALKING POINTS

  • FUTURES MARKETS PRETTY WELL RANGE-BOUND FOR NOW, WITH MARCH CORN 3.75-3.95 AND MARCH BEANS 10.00-10.50

 

  • ENERGY MARKETS DOWN HARD THE PAST 2 WEEKS, LED BY CRUDE OIL WHICH IS NOW BELOW $70.  PRODUCTION IS UP, DEMAND IS FLAT, AND OPEC IS GONNA KEEP ON PUMPIN’

 

  • NUMEROUS COMMODITY HEDGE FUNDS CLOSING SHOP DUE TO POOR RETURNS THE PAST YEAR. 

 

  • RAILROAD PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN GOOD WITH LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED GRAIN SUPPLY PUSH, AND MILD WINTER WEATHER…SO FAR.

 

  • CASH BASIS LEVELS HAVE BEEN FIRMING ON LIGHT FARMER SELLING AND GOOD DOMESTIC MARGINS IN FEED AND ETHANOL.

 

  • SPOT ETHANOL PRICES AT A PREMIUM TO GASOLINE….NOT REAL CONDUSIVE TO ANY EXTRA BLENDING, AND NOT SUSTAINABLE.

 

  • WHEAT HAS BEEN VERY VOLATILE THIS PAST WEEK, AS LOWER CRUDE OIL PRICES HAVE SLAMMED THE RUSSIAN CURRENCY VALUE.  MAY INCREASE BLACK SEA WHEAT/FEEDGRAIN EXPORTS.

 

  • DEC 10 USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND REPORT WILL NOT HAVE ANY SUPPLY CHANGES (MAY HAPPEN IN JANUARY).  DEMAND SIDE MAY BE TWEAKED SOMEWHAT.  PROBABLY BE A YAWNER.

 

 

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Ames, IA 50010
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