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MARKET COMMENTARY

Weekly Grain TP's Nov26

Wednesday, November 26, 2014, 12:11 PM
Submitted by: Jon Setterdahl


  • HARVEST PRETTY WELL WRAPPED UP. NATIONALLY CORN 94% DONE AND BEANS 97% COMPLETE.

 

  • CASH BASIS LEVELS FIRMING SOMEWHAT IN MOST AREAS.  UNLIKE THE LAST 2 YEARS, UPSIDE WILL BE CAPPED BY THE SHEAR SIZE OF THE CROP AND PROJECTED CARRYOUT.

 

  • CORN EXPORT SALES HAVE IMPROVED THE PAST 2 WEEKS, ALTHOUGH JAPAN AND MEXICO REMAIN 25%+ BELOW YTD EXPECTATIONS.  MEXICO HAD A VERY GOOD CROP AND SLOW JAPANESE ECONOMY ARE LIKELY REASONS.  ALSO, AGENTINA HAS MORE CORN TO EXPORT AND WILL BE A CHEAPER SOURCE THAN U.S.

 

  • SOYBEAN EXPORT PACE HAS BEEN ROBUST TO CHINA.  THAT PACE LIKELY SLOWS AFTER THE NEW YEAR.  WATCH FOR INFO ON CHINESE ECONOMY GROWTH/DECLINE FOR OILSEED PRICE DIRECTION.  AGENTINA WILL HAVE MORE SBMEAL TO EXPORT THAN LAST YEAR.

 

  • RAIL TRANSPORTATION MOVING SURPRISINGLY WELL.  OVERALL THE CROP IN THE WESTERN BELT WAS MAYBE A LITTLE LESS THAN EXPECTED AND MANY HANDLERS ALREADY HAD PLANS IN PLACE TO KEEP GRAIN OFF THE MARKET AND NOT TO RELY AS MUCH ON RAILROAD PERFORMANCE FOR HARVEST.  EASTERN RAILROADS STILL STRUGGLING….BIG CROP AND FEWER PLACES FOR IT TO GO.

 

  • HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL.  TRAVEL SAFELY.

 

 

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