Fccoop

MARKET COMMENTARY

weekly grain TP's

Wednesday, November 19, 2014, 9:11 AM
Submitted by: Jon Setterdahl


  • WEEKLY HARVEST PROGRESS MONDAY SHOWED CORN 89% COMPLETE (IA 92) AND BEANS AT 94% COMPLETE (IA98).  INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOTH WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN HAD OVER 1/3 OF CORN HARVEST YET TO DO…..WON’T BE MUCH FUN IN THIS WEATHER.

 

  • SPEC MONEY HAS TURNED SELLER THE LAST FEW DAYS AS CHART TECHNICALS ARE BREAKING DOWN.  THEY HAD BEEN AGGRESSIVELY BUYING THE LAST 2 WEEKS WHICH WAS MET BY FARMER SELLING/HEDGING. 

 

  • THE US IS IMPORTING FEED WHEAT (FROM FRANCE) AND SBMEAL (FROM ARGENTINA) INTO THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS IS UNBELIEVABLE GIVEN THE RECORD US CROP SIZES, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CORN BELT.  LOGISTICS THE MAIN REASON AS EASTERN RAILROAD PERFORMANCE HAS GONE FROM BAD TO WORSE.  THIS IS A SHORT-TERM RED FLAG FOR PRICES.  WITH US CARRYOUT ESTIMATES OF 2.0BLN CORN AND 450MLN BEANS, THERE IS NO WAY WE SHOULD BE IMPORTING ANYTHING.

 

  • DON’T SEE IT MUCH AT ALL IN IOWA OR MINNESOTA, BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF UNCOVERED CORN PILES IN OTHER NEIGHBORING STATES, PARTICULARLY MISSOURI, ILLINOIS, NEBRASKA.

 

  • CURRENT SOYBEAN CRUSH MARGINS GOOD IN THE US…REPORTED TO BE NEGATIVE IN CHINA.

 

  • SLUGGISH US CORN EXPORT PACE REMAINS A LARGE CONCERN HEADING INTO WINTER. 

 

 

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Ames, IA 50010
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