PM Comments 11/11/2014
Tuesday, November 11, 2014, 4:11 PM
Submitted by: Joel Pudenz
Remember the USDA report yesterday that increased the size of our soybean crop from an already record number? It appears it wasn’t big enough. The market rebounded from 15 cent losses sustained after the report yesterday, and then put another 20 cents on to finish 36 to 39 cents higher on the day. Meal led the way once again (strong crush margins resulting in firm meal basis levels), finishing nearly $20/ton higher. Additionally, producers in Argentina are reluctant sellers of soybeans. Hanging on to soybean bushels is much more attractive than exchanging them for the ever inflating Argentine Peso. The soy complex, corn, and wheat all finished higher on the day. Weather is currently a negligible input; forecasts are developing as expected (in spite of how much we don’t like it). These early winter temps are freezing the soil profile and will likely cause a hectic spring agronomy season.
Spillover support and fund money flow propped the corn market up 4 cents today. It sounds like trade talks about DDG’s moving into China could be gaining some traction. China is accepting some cargos of DDG’s that are certified free of MIR 162, which also started speculation of revived DDG exports. Such news would support both corn and soybean meal prices. The market would then have to digest the prospects of even more support for meal, a record domestic soybean harvest, and a South American crop that will be ready to harvest in a few short months.
Corn settled 4 cents higher
Soybeans settled 36 to 39 cents higher
Wheat settled 3 cents higher
Have a good night!