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MARKET COMMENTARY

weekly grain TP's

Thursday, November 6, 2014, 10:11 AM
Submitted by: Jon Setterdahl


WEEKLY GRAIN TALKING POINTS

·        HARVEST PROGRESS LAST MONDAY WAS CORN 65% (IA61) AND SOYBEANS 83% (IA91).  MANY AREAS WILL BE WINDING DOWN THIS WEEK, JUST IN TIME FOR WINTER-TYPE WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

 

·        RAIL TRANSPORTATION IS ACTUALLY PRETTY FLUID IN THE WEST, DUE TO LESS THAN EXPECTED YIELDS IN SOME AREAS AND LIGHT FARMER SELLING.  PERFORMANCE GETTING WORSE IN THE EAST, WHERE YIELDS ARE HUGE AND STORAGE CAPACITY IS BEING OVER-RUN.  SURE DON’T SEE IT MUCH IN IA, BUT IN OTHER AREAS THERE ARE A LOT OF BUNKERS AND OPEN CORN PILES. 

 

·        NEXT USDA REPORT ON NOV10.  LIKELY TO INCREASE YIELDS SOMEWHAT.  NOT MUCH NEW ON THE DEMAND SIDE OF THINGS….BEAN EXPORT DEMAND IS ROBUST (CHINA), CORN EXPORT DEMAND IS LACKING DUE TO CHEAPER CORN AND FEED WHEAT IN OTHER AREAS OF THE WORLD.

 

·        MARKET EXPECTING A 3-5MLN ACRE SWITCH FROM CORN TO BEANS NEXT YEAR…IF THAT HAPPENS AND IF WEATHER IS NORMAL BOTH HERE AND S.AMERICA, SX15 BEAN PRICE HAS CONSIDERABLE DOWNSIDE RISK.  LIKEWISE, CZ15 CORN PRICES PROBABLY SUPPORTED FOR THE SAME REASON.

 

·        S.AMERICAN WEATHER BEARS WATCHING HERE….PARTS OF BRAZIL DRY AND PARTS OF ARGENTINA TOO WET.  DELAYED BEAN PLANTING.

 

 

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Ames, IA 50010
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