AM Comments 11/06/14
Thursday, November 6, 2014, 8:11 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The weekly export sales report was out this morning and it is bearish to corn as corn sales last week were poor. Sales came out below the lowest trade estimates – and the trade didn’t set the bar too high because the market has known for a while that the U.S. has been uncompetitive in the world with corn prices. I’m not sure how long we can have futures prices hang in here at these higher levels while the export corn program just fizzles… Soybean exports on the other hand keep over-performing as they once again were larger than what the trade was expecting. When these numbers hit the newswire soybeans quickly jumped from 4c lower to 4c higher.
This week so far has been very choppy – yesterday was a good example as the markets were weak in the morning, strengthened during the day only to be weak again overnight. Generally good weather will allow harvest to keep plugging along, it feels like the last piece to the puzzle (to get prices to drop lower) could be farmer selling. Corn basis in the Eastern Corn Belt feels firmer than necessary due to farmers still holding onto their grains – the crop is there, but the farmer hasn’t found the best way to market it yet. It may take a sharp rally to get the farmer to aggressively sell, or it may perhaps take a sharp drop in prices to scare some out. Whenever the US producer does let loose of some of his/her cash grain… basis, spreads and eventually futures prices could all start to slip.
Corn 2 to 3 cents lower
Soybeans 2 to 4 cents higher
Have a great day!