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MARKET COMMENTARY

weekly grain TPs

Thursday, October 9, 2014, 9:10 AM
Submitted by: Jon Setterdahl


10-8-14

WEEKLY GRAIN TALKING POINTS

·        MARKET MAY HAVE PUT IN SHORT-TERM LOWS LAST WEEK, AS THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHORT-COVERING THIS WEEK AHEAD OF USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND REPORT THIS FRIDAY. 

 

·        THIS SUPPLY/DEMAND REPORT SHOULD INCORPORATE FINAL ACREAGE NUMBERS FOR THIS YEAR, WHICH WILL BE LOWER THAN PRIOR ESTIMATES….BUT YIELDS LIKELY TO WORK HIGHER.  AVERAGE PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 14.4BLN CORN AND 3.9BLN BEANS.  BOTH WOULD BE RECORD LARGE.

 

·        CARRYOUT PROJECTIONS FOR NEXT YEAR REMAIN AROUND 2.0BLN CORN AND 450MLN BEANS.

 

·        WEATHER FINALLY COOPERATING. HARVEST ACTIVITY WILL CRANK UP.

 

·        ALL ENERGY PRICES WORKING LOWER, INCLUDING GASOLINE/ETHANOL.  ETHANOL ALONE DOWN 50 CENTS/GAL IN LAST 2 WEEKS, MOST PLANTS CURRENTLY LOOKING AT SMALL TO BREAK-EVEN MARGINS.

 

·        TRANSPORTATION/STORAGE CRUNCH ON THE WAY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT CANNOT HOLD THE CROP.

 

·        PRODUCER REMAINS A RELUCTANT SELLER AND WILL STORE A LOT OF THIS CROP.

 

·        FOR THE MOST PART, SOYBEAN YIELDS ARE AT OR ABOVE EXPECTATIONS SO FAR.  EARLY CORN YIELDS MIXED VERSUS EXPECTATIONS.

 

 

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