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MARKET COMMENTARY

Weekly Grain Talking Points (TP's)

Thursday, September 25, 2014, 9:09 AM
Submitted by: Jon Setterdahl


Folks, will start posting these on our website.  The intent is to cut thru some of the daily market “noise” and boil down to a few key items. 

Hope that it is helpful. 

 

9-25-14

WEEKLY GRAIN TALKING POINTS

 

  • SOME SCATTERED HARVEST ACTIVITY IN IA.   BETTER PROGRESS THE LAST WEEK IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CORN BELT.  CORN YIELDS FOR THE MOST PART REPORTED ABOVE EXPECTATIONS.

 

  • LAST USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND REPORT HAD NATIONAL CORN YIELD AT 171.7 BPA.   SOME PRIVATE ANALYSTS NOW MOVING THEIR ESTIMATES TO THE 175-180 BPA RANGE. 

 

  • BIG CROP COULD BE GETTING BIGGER.  AREAS IN THE SOUTH ALREADY STRUGGLING WITH FREIGHT AND STORAGE CAPACITY.  BARGE FREIGHT LEVELS CURRENTLY AT ALL-TIME HIGHS. 

 

  • BOARD RALLYS DON’T LOOK LIKELY IN THE SHORT-TERM.

 

  • AS A % OF THE EXPECTED CROP SIZE, FARMER CORN MARKETING PROBABLY AT A RECORD LOW.

 

  • SEVERAL POLITICIANS AND THE SURFACE TRANSPORTATION BOARD WILL BE WATCHING RAILROAD PERFORMANCE CLOSELY.  COLLECTIVELY THE U.S. RAILROADS SPENT $15BLN THIS YEAR TO IMPROVE PERFORMANCE FROM LAST YEAR’S DISASTER.  THAT $$ SPENT PRIMARILY ON TRACKAGE AND LOCOMOTIVES.

 

  • EXPORT PACE CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD FOR BEANS THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.  CORN LOOKS POOR GIVEN AMPLE WORLD FEEDGRAIN SUPPLIES.  COULD FURTHER BACK UP THE PIPELINE.

 

 

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