AM Comments 09/15/14
Monday, September 15, 2014, 7:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
We are looking at mixed/lower markets to start off the week and new contract lows seem possible (maybe even probable) for both corn and soybean futures. Not much to go off of, the early weekend frost damage was limited to isolated areas in the far NW – not much of a story there. The extended precipitation maps from NOAA continue to look dry for the end of September which sounds like a great start to harvest (maps below).
With the continued downward pressure we are seeing in futures prices, the market seems like it may already be in the process of pricing in yields larger than what we saw in the already bearish September S&D from last Thursday. Out of the last 20 times the USDA bumped yield up from the August report to the September report (which is what happened this year) – they did it again from September to October 17 times (85%). That little nugget right there could be the reason why so many in the trade believe the saying “big crops get bigger”.
Corn 2 to 3 cents lower
Soybeans 4 to 6 cents lower
Have a great day!