USDA Report Review
Thursday, September 11, 2014, 11:09 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The USDA confirmed (and then some) the thought that most of the trade already had: big crops are getting bigger -- and the market is lower.
Let’s look at the numbers (the tables are below the email). Corn. They pegged the US yield at 171.7 bpa (the average trade guess was 170.7 bpa, it was 167.40 bpa last month). This yield moves crop size up to 14.395 billion bushels. They did adjust projected demand for next year -- higher usage in feed, ethanol and exports -- but the carryouts still ballooned next summer to just over 2 billion bushels!
Soybeans. They have the US yield projected at 46.6 bpa (the average trade guess was 46.3 bpa, it was 45.4 bpa last month). This bigger yield bumps the crop size up to 3.913 billion bushels. They did raise demand projections for next year to offset some of the increased production but the carryout is still big, now projected to be 475 million bushels next summer. For reference the carryout this summer was only 130 million bushels (which could still be a little high, that may be adjusted again when the Sep 1 quarterly stocks report is released on Sep 30th).
Overall, nothing here for the bulls today. World carryout numbers were also bearish as the world looks flush with grains and oilseeds.
Corn is down 8-10 cents
Soybeans are down 17 to 20 cents.