AM Comments 06/25/14
Wednesday, June 25, 2014, 8:06 AM
Submitted by: Dustin Weiner
The grain trade seems like it has already turned its attention to Monday’s big stocks and acreage reports. The average trade guesses for those reports are in, it looks like they are expecting corn acres to be right in line with the March USDA estimate (approx. 91.7 ma) while soybean acres are expected to be a little larger than the March USDA estimate (82.1 ma vs 81.5 ma in March). The stocks report is a little tougher to gauge – let’s just say that the trade expects old crop beans to remain tight (tighter than last year) while corn should have around 1b more bushels on hand than last year at this time. The corn number will be interesting just to get a good handle on the pace of demand, which gets debated often.
This June 30th report is known for fireworks (read: limit up or down) so any major defections from those guesses will likely cause a violent shift in prices. The one thing that could mitigate a big upward price swing??? Weather. Long story short the weather forecasts remain non-threatening. The flooding that has taken place in parts of the belt has been viewed as limited and most crops have had (are expected to continue seeing) great growing weather as evidenced by the G/E ratings that come out Monday afternoons.
Corn 2 to 3 cents lower
Soybeans steady to 2c higher
Have a great day!